Experts of the Association of Innovative Regions of Russia (AIRR) have presented an updated calculation of the quarterly Regional Index of Demand for Personnel for the Innovative Economy (STEM). According to the study prepared in partnership with the online recruitment platform hh.ru, in 2025 the average number of unfilled vacancies across the regions fell by 34.5%, and in AIRR member regions with a developed science and technology sector by 37.2%. The traditional pattern is that companies’ recruitment activity slows down towards the end of the year and then recovers, with demand usually picking up again at the beginning of the year. Such a recovery of the labor market did not happen last year. Facing serious recession risks, the economy does not show significant demand for new specialists in the technology and innovation sector. “The market for highly qualified professionals is shrinking, and there are still no signs of its recovery. Even in regions with a developed innovation‑driven economy, companies are reducing hiring, adapting their business to the available STEM workforce, looking for hidden reserves and, with mixed success, increasing labor productivity. The decline in demand is especially noticeable in IT and high‑tech sectors, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for young specialists without work experience to find a job in the STEM field, despite a record‑low unemployment rate for modern Russia,” notes AIRR Director Alexander Smekalin. Indeed, the share of IT‑company vacancies among all STEM vacancies in December 2025 was 13.8% (versus 16% a year earlier), while the absolute number of vacancies fell by 44% over the year. The results of the study also show that companies are actively using alternative ways to fill positions: they are increasing the productivity of existing employees and offering part‑time or remote work. “The trend that emerges when you look at the dynamics of the labor market for STEM personnel is a serious signal of an economic slowdown. We see that, as of today, the civilian production sector is shrinking,” added Alexander Smekalin. In 2026, companies’ need for new specialists will directly depend on business conditions, tax policy, and macroeconomic factors, including a possible wave of bankruptcies, as Russian economists note. Interregional competition for talent persists. At the same time, more and more economists share the view that the possibilities for further wage growth without a radical increase in workplace productivity have been exhausted. It is therefore quite logical that competition for valuable employees will have to shift to other factors. When it comes to the willingness of young specialists to retrain or build up their qualifications, fewer and fewer companies are looking for STEM professionals without work experience (11.7% in December 2025 versus 13.9% in December 2024). Moreover, the higher the salary level in a region, the lower the flexibility of companies regarding qualification requirements in recruitment and the weaker employers’ willingness to invest in developing employees without experience. In this context, many young specialists with high ambitions find it increasingly difficult to get a job, despite the record‑low unemployment rate—read: “despite the so‑called ‘shortage of personnel for the economy’.” For reference: The Index is calculated as the number of vacancies in STEM professions per 10,000 economically active people in a region. The data for the analysis are provided by the online recruitment platform HeadHunter (hh.ru) and include information on 800,000 vacancies published or extended in December 2025, 69,000 of which are classified as STEM professions (8.6%).